Panmure Liberum is a leading force in UK Investment Banking

Since the beginning of March, the market outlook for UK interest rates has moved from anticipating two interest rate cuts, to three interest rate hikes. This is an extraordinary level of volatility. It has its origins in fast-moving and unpredictable events in the Middle East. Whilst this is an alarming whipsaw for UK households and businesses to absorb, I would caution against making long-term predictions on the cost of borrowing. None of us have a reliable model for what Donald J Trump does next. Any sign of a cessation of hostilities could easily see those interest rate expectations evaporate. ​

By Simon French, Chief Economist and Head of Research 

Next week sees the publication of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s Spring Forecast. Hopes are high that it won't leak early on this occasion. The Forecast is one of two opportunities that the OBR gets each year to update its economic and fiscal outlook.

For the last twenty-five years the UK has had a positive story to tell on jobs. Between 2000 and 2025 the UK economy delivered an employment rate of 73%, this compares to a 70% employment rate over the preceding twenty-five years. Working age inactivity has also been lower, averaging 22.4% over the last quarter of a century. This compares to 23.6% between 1975 and 2000. Whatever accusations can be levelled at the UK economy in recent years - and the list is unfortunately quite extensive - a lack of jobs is not one. ​