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Every four years, I write a note that has many more readers than anything else I publish. This is the note. It is our forecast for the FIFA World Cup, this year in Canada, the United States and Mexico. It has become a tradition among banks to make these forecasts to show that economists have a sense of humour (they don’t) and can actually forecast things that matter. They can’t. Or rather, most of them can’t. I developed a proprietary econometric model in 2014 to forecast the winner of the previous three World Cups and so far, my track record is 100% accurate. Clearly, nothing can go wrong in making another forecast.

As you might have guessed from the intro, this note is very much tongue in cheek and has absolutely nothing to do with investments – or has it?

Click here to view the note.

Since the beginning of March, the market outlook for UK interest rates has moved from anticipating two interest rate cuts, to three interest rate hikes. This is an extraordinary level of volatility. It has its origins in fast-moving and unpredictable events in the Middle East. Whilst this is an alarming whipsaw for UK households and businesses to absorb, I would caution against making long-term predictions on the cost of borrowing. None of us have a reliable model for what Donald J Trump does next. Any sign of a cessation of hostilities could easily see those interest rate expectations evaporate. ​

By Simon French, Chief Economist and Head of Research 

Next week sees the publication of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s Spring Forecast. Hopes are high that it won't leak early on this occasion. The Forecast is one of two opportunities that the OBR gets each year to update its economic and fiscal outlook.