Panmure Liberum is a new force in UK Investment Banking and Corporate Broking

By Simon French, Chief Economist and Head of Research 

Conventional wisdom has it that the second Trump Presidency will be a nightmare for the European economy. Certainly that is how financial markets see it. The Euro, the British Pound, and the Swiss Franc are down by six cents against the Dollar during the fourth quarter. The US S&P500 share index is up 9% over the last three months, the closest European equivalent - the Stoxx600 - is down by 2% over the same period. Investors are calculating that the growth of corporate earnings in the United States will further outstrip those in Europe - with US earnings fueled by Trump-led corporate tax cuts, and European earnings impacted by punishing tariffs on Europe's $600bn of goods exports into the US economy.

By Joachim Klement, Head of Strategy

A couple of months ago, I wrote a post about research that examined what we look at when we look at price charts. In an independent study that could be considered a follow-up (at least when it comes to me writing a post), Xindi He and Yucheng Liang quantified some of these perceptions and showed how they influence our perception of the riskiness of an investment. 

By Simon French, Chief Economist and Head of Research 

UK economic growth slowed during the third quarter of the year. GDP growth of just 0.1% in the three months to the end of September was a marked slowdown from the average of 0.6% during the first two quarters of the year. Sentiment was impacted by looming tax increases, a different approach to labour market regulation, and fears over a crowding out of private sector activity. This meant that decision-making stalled. Whilst this was most obvious in the construction sector, the data suggested that all sectors were impacted. The fear is of more to come through the winter as employers work through the impact of the recent Budget.